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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 58

Carolina Panthers 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to DET 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.13 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 58, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 18, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model