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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 36

Detroit Lions 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(:42) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.00 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model