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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 53

Detroit Lions 10 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(:07) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.36 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 53, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model