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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 43

Detroit Lions 10 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to CAR 6, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-35-M.Killebrew.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.26 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP