4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 14

Detroit Lions 10 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.58 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model