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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 74

Carolina Panthers 7 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(:47) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to DET 38, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-T.Jones to DET 48 for 10 yards (53-B.Jacobs; 42-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.44 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 74, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 32, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model