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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 45

Detroit Lions 13 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:03) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to CAR 8, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 18-D.Byrd.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.85 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.54 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model