Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 7 – Detroit Lions 7

(:33) 5-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to DET 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model