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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 27

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(:34) 3-M.Bryant 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.92 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 27, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 37, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model