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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 32

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 2-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.21 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP