Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 65

Dallas Cowboys 19 – Atlanta Falcons 12

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to ATL 16, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 14-J.Hardy pushed ob at ATL 17 for 1 yard (35-K.Frazier). PENALTY on DAL-14-L.Lenoir, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 17.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.01 EP
65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model