4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 23

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 3-M.Bryant 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.86 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 23, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model