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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 60

Green Bay Packers 21 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 6-J.Scott punts 40 yards to SEA 20, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.95 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 19, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model