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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 84

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to GB 25, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-T.Davis to GB 34 for 9 yards (38-T.Madden; 51-B.Mingo).

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.44 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model