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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 49

Green Bay Packers 21 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 6-J.Scott punts 46 yards to SEA 3, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-28-T.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.02 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.62 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model