4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 18

Green Bay Packers 21 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(8:27) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.20 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 18, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 28, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model