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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 21

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 11-S.Janikowski 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.40 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.86 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model