Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 65

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

(1:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to GB 11, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-T.Davis pushed ob at GB 26 for 15 yards (84-E.Dickson).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.59 EP
59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model