Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 78

Washington Commanders 0 – Houston Texans 0

(14:17) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to HOU 27, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +2.04 EP
64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model