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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 70

Houston Texans 10 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 8-T.Daniel punts 30 yards to WAS 40, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model