4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 15

Houston Texans 17 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(1:22) 7-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. Penalty on WAS-35-M.Nicholson, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model