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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 46

Washington Commanders 14 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 78-A.Howard and 52-R.Anderson reported in as eligible. 12-C.McCoy left end to HOU 41 for 5 yards (25-K.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.93 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model