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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 19 at the 73

Washington Commanders 21 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(4:45) 5-T.Way punts 31 yards to HOU 42, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.13 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 31, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model