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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 45

Washington Commanders 21 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(:08) 3-D.Hopkins 63 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +1.11 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.03 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model