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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 5-J.Townsend punts 39 yards to ARI 25, Center-47-T.Sieg. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 37 for 12 yards (50-N.Morrow; 58-K.Wilber).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.44 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 22, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model