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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 50

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 5-J.Townsend punts 39 yards to ARI 11, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.88 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model