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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 88

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 2-A.Lee punts 58 yards to LV 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 30-J.Richard MUFFS catch, touched at LV 30, and recovers at LV 37. 30-J.Richard to LV 37 for no gain (47-E.Turner).

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.93 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 88, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 46, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model