4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 55

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 2-A.Lee punts 46 yards to LV 9, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +1.99 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 55, worth -2.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model