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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 63

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(8:08) 2-A.Lee punts 28 yards to LV 35, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.40 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 63, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model