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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 2

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(:25) 8-D.Carlson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 2, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP