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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 74

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 5-J.Townsend punts 52 yards to ARI 22, Center-47-T.Sieg. 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at ARI 40 for 18 yards (25-E.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 74, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model