Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 59

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

(3:16) 2-A.Lee punts 57 yards to LV 2, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-29-C.Edmonds.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.58 EP
68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 59, worth -2.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model