Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 98

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Arizona Cardinals 21

(2:50) 5-J.Townsend punts 47 yards to LV 49, Center-47-T.Sieg. 13-C.Kirk to LV 44 for 5 yards (55-M.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -3.61 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.49 EP
64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 98, worth -5.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model