Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 77

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

(4:43) 5-J.Townsend punts 48 yards to ARI 29, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.74 EP
74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model