Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(3:47) 2-A.Lee punts 57 yards to LV 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-D.Harris pushed ob at LV 21 for 12 yards (32-D.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.34 EP
58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model