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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 76

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 1-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to NO 33, Center-45-R.Lovato. 7-T.Hill to NO 42 for 9 yards (57-D.Alexander). PENALTY on NO-59-V.Biegel, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 33.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.65 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 76, worth -4.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -2.26 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 34, worth -2.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP