Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 75

New Orleans Saints 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(7:49) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to PHI 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 75, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model