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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 51

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 1-C.Johnston punts 35 yards to NO 16, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 41-A.Kamara.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.87 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 51, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model