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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 20

New Orleans Saints 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.07 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 20, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP