Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 86

New Orleans Saints 48 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(3:18) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to PHI 37, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-G.Tate to PHI 35 for -2 yards (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.75 EP
63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 86, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model