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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 49

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 1-C.Johnston punts 35 yards to NO 14, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 41-A.Kamara.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.71 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model