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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 76

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 4-J.Berry punts 59 yards to JAX 17, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 42 for 25 yards (56-A.Chickillo).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 76, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 34, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model