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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 25

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 4-J.Lambo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. Penalty on PIT-93-D.McCullers, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.02 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model