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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 46

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.51 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model