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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 46

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(:48) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.38 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.63 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model