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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 46

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 30-J.Conner to JAX 45 for 1 yard (93-C.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.28 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model