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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 4-J.Berry punts 51 yards to JAX 20, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.51 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 29, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP