Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

(14:24) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to PIT 17, Center-45-M.Overton. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 17 for no gain (17-D.Chark).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model