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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 89

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to JAX 48, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-D.Westbrook to PIT 41 for 11 yards (54-L.Fort).

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.99 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 89, worth -5.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 46, worth -2.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model