Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 57

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

(5:16) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.52 EP
70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model